2.8°C by the end of the century!

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Have the Paris Climate Agreements and successive COPs served any purpose? The UN is once again ringing the alarm bell. Because according to the organization, with the reality of current policies, it is unlikely that humanity will manage to limit the rise in average temperatures below 1.5°C by 2030.

In the report published a week before the start of COP27 to be held in Egypt, we can read that the commitments made during COP26 in Glasgow last year “allowed only a negligible difference from emissions predictions for 2030” – while emphasizing that progress over the past 12 months has been “grossly inadequate”.

The UN is once again sounding the alarm on global warming

Limiting global warming to below 1.5°C by 2030 would have made it possible to limit environmental degradation, making life as we currently know it little by little impossible in several regions of the world. As it stands, we are heading more towards an increase of more than 1.8°C by the 2030 deadline, and an extremely worrying increase of 2.8°C for the end of the 21st century.

The UN considers that the promises of the various States lack ambition and will probably not have the desired effect. According to the organisation’s calculations, these measures will in reality only limit warming to a range between 2.4°C and 2.6°C by the end of the century. And again, if the implementation of these promises is done correctly.

So that it is becoming more and more likely according to the UN that we will rather reach the figure of 2.8°C increase in average temperatures by the end of the century. According to the report, it is no longer possible to avoid implementing major societal and infrastructural changes. The production and delivery of energy, the operation of industry, modes of transport, construction, etc.

The report lists many recommendations to try to reverse the trend. But to achieve the objective of limiting the rise in temperatures below 1.5°C, CO2 emissions would have to be reduced by 45% by 2030. A proportion reduced to 30% if we abandoned the objective of 1.5 °C and rather counted on a limit below 2°C.

“Is transforming our systems in just 8 years a major challenge? Yes. But can we really reduce greenhouse gas emissions as much as necessary in this time frame? Maybe not. But we have to try anyway. Every tenth of a degree matters for the most vulnerable communities, endangered species and ecosystems, and for each of us”concludes the report.

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